In the context of the global economic slowdown, the mobile robot industry is still growing against the trend, increasing by 33% in 2022, with total AGV and AMR sales exceeding 120,000 units and total revenue reaching $3.6 billion. Despite the weak global economy, high interest rates and high inflation, we forecast that global mobile robot shipments will further grow by 45% in 2023, and the growth rate may slow down compared to 2023 in 2024, but the forecast will still exceed 30%.

While key customers of mobile robots, including manufacturers, retailers and logistics companies, are generally retrenching amid weak consumer confidence and an unfavourable macroeconomic environment, the forces driving automation are gaining momentum. Companies continue to invest in AGVs and AMRs to address labor shortages, reduce operating costs, improve operational efficiency, and maintain a competitive edge.

The mobile robot market is a diverse industry whose products cover a wide range of forms, styles and technologies that enable a degree of automation of workflows and processes imaginable in all walks of life. Perhaps not surprisingly, the best-selling mobile robots last year were those used to perform automated conveyor tasks for point-to-point material handling. In 2022, total global sales of such robots, which can typically carry loads ranging from 20 kilograms to several tons, reached nearly 40,000 units, and in 2023, sales are expected to exceed 50,000 units. Currently, there are many manual applications in warehouses and factories, and the need for a large number of peer-to-peer material movements means that this number is still only a small percentage in terms of overall market penetration, which will grow significantly in the coming years.

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In recent years, both material handling robots and order fulfillment robots have achieved strong revenue growth.

Similarly, Kiva-like shelf-to-human robots produced by vendors like Geek+ and GreyOrange continued to grow strongly in 2022, with more than 30,000 units sold (this figure does not include robots manufactured and installed by Amazon). These robots are rapidly being adopted by retailers and third-party logistics companies, especially in China, where sales and deployment of such robots are expected to exceed 40,000 units by 2023. Shelf-to-human robots have been active in the marketplace for more than a decade (which is quite a long time considering the pace of technological development) and are now beginning to be replaced by the next generation of solutions – bin-to-human robots. Developed by companies such as Exotec, HAI Robotics and Geek+, the bin to person robot offers the same benefits as the rack to person robot, but with a higher storage density, with vertical storage heights up to 12 meters high. This allows retailers and third-party logistics companies to achieve more productivity and throughput from smaller warehouses. Although currently deployed in small numbers, demand for such robots is growing rapidly, with sales expected to reach nearly 15,000 units this year and expected to grow by nearly 70 percent annually over the next five years.

As in previous years, there are significant differences in supplier performance in 2022 due to the wide variation in growth rates within different model segments. For example, sales of human-delivered AMRs nearly doubled in 2022, while revenue from automated tractors was essentially flat. The same will be true in 2023 – the performance of suppliers will be largely influenced by the growth trends in the product segments in which they operate. In 2022, the top three global vendors (Geek+, KION and HiKRobot) performed well, and the overall market share of the three leading vendors increased by nearly 3 percentage points together.

In 2022, many of the leading mobile robot suppliers in China, North America and Europe experienced strong revenue growth.

Despite the uncertainty of macroeconomic growth, the outlook for mobile robots remains very positive. This is because customers are “automating” as a long-term strategy to stay competitive. We forecast that total global mobile robot revenue will reach $6 billion in 2024, with total sales approaching 250,000 units.