Recently, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics jointly released the China manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in December 2023, which was 49%, down 0.4 percentage points from November 2023.

CD2H-700M122 In this regard, Zhang Liqun, special analyst of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that the PMI index in December 2023 continued to decrease under the line of growth and contraction, indicating that the downward pressure on the economy has increased. We must attach great importance to the trend of demand contraction, pay particular attention to the role of its self-accelerating mechanism, and accelerate the countercyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies. In particular, we must vigorously strengthen the driving role of government investment in enterprise production and investment, reverse the self-accelerating trend of demand contraction as soon as possible, and significantly boost the momentum of economic recovery.

CD2H-700M122 From the perspective of 13 sub-indexes, compared with November 2023, the backlog of orders index, purchase price index and production and business activity expectation index rose, and the index increased by 0.1 to 0.8 percentage points; The supplier delivery time index remained unchanged from November 2023; The production index, the index of new orders, the index of new export orders, the index of finished goods inventories, the index of purchases, the index of imports, the index of ex-factory prices, the index of raw material inventories and the index of employees declined, and the index fell between 0.2 and 0.9 percentage points.

Zhang Liqun said that the index of new orders and new export orders continued to decline under the line of growth and contraction, and the proportion of enterprises reflecting insufficient demand reached 60.76%, which further increased from November 2023, and the problem of demand contraction was more prominent. Affected by it, the production index, purchase index, finished goods inventory index, etc. continue to decline, indicating that the production and operation activities of enterprises are converging.

CD2H-700M122 Wen Tao, a researcher at the China Logistics Information Center, said that from the structural changes of the index, the economic operation is basically stable, the production activities of enterprises are stable, and the new momentum continues to grow steadily. However, exports fell significantly due to seasonal effects, and the difference between the price index of raw materials and finished products widened.

“Combined with the trend of the manufacturing PMI and the PMI of the four major industries, the economy will show a stable recovery and a good structural development trend in 2023.” Wen Tao pointed out that looking back at 2023, the annual average of manufacturing PMI was 49.9%, 0.8 percentage points higher than the annual average in 2022. From the perspective of the index trend, the manufacturing PMI ran at a good level of more than 50% in the first quarter of 2023, indicating that the economy recovered rapidly after the impact of the epidemic subsided, and the index fell rapidly in the second quarter, indicating that the momentum of economic recovery has slowed down after the rapid release of backlog demand, and the average index in the third and fourth quarters ran at about 49.5%. It shows that China’s economy has maintained a relatively stable operation, driven by the active implementation of policies and measures to stabilize the economy and promote growth.

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CD2H-700M122 “Looking ahead to 2024, China’s economy has a solid foundation for stable and sound performance.” Wen Tao said, first, China has a solid ultra-large scale market and strong production capacity advantages, is still a crucial part of the global supply chain value chain; Second, the various policy measures to stabilize the economy, promote growth and improve the structure have achieved continuous results. The expected index of production and business activities in December was 55.9%, rising for three consecutive months, and the average expected index of production and business activities in the second half of 2023 was higher than the average in the first half of the year and the average in the second half of 2022, showing that business confidence continued to boost. “With the full implementation of the work of promoting scientific and technological innovation, focusing on expanding domestic demand, promoting the development of the private economy and expanding the high-level opening up, the economy is expected to continue to recover and improve in 2024.”

CD2H-700M122 In addition, the reporter learned from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing that in December 2023, China’s non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from November 2023, and since the fourth quarter of 2023, it has been stable at more than 50% for three consecutive months. CAI Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that the supply and demand of China’s non-manufacturing market has steadily recovered, the performance of investment-related activities and financial support for the real economy are better than the previous period, the level of business activity index of the construction industry and the financial industry has improved, and the endogenous momentum of China’s economy is accumulating.

CD2H-700M122 “As market supply and demand continue to recover, market sales prices and employment activities have shown signs of stabilizing, reflecting the linkage effect of economic recovery.” Wu Wei, director of the analysis and prediction Department of China Logistics Information Center, pointed out that in December 2023, the sales price index was 49.3%, up 1 percentage point from November 2023, ending the trend of two consecutive months of decline, and hitting a new high in the fourth quarter of 2023; The employment index was 47.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from November 2023, rising for two consecutive months, and reaching a new high since June 2023.

Wu Wei analysis said that overall, in 2024, under the principle of adhering to the principle of seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and breaking first, the contradiction of insufficient market demand will be alleviated compared with 2023, investment-related activities are expected to continue to grow steadily, the release of consumption momentum will be further improved compared with 2023, and the economy is expected to continue to stabilize.