Counter-cyclical adjustment efforts continued to increase, and the national manufacturing PMI index performed better than expected. On November 30, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in November, the national manufacturing PMI index was 50.2%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. At this point, the manufacturing PMI temporarily stopped contracting for six consecutive months and returned to the expansion range.

RXE2N0Q0J132A Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the service industry Survey center of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the manufacturing PMI this month mainly presents the following characteristics, including improvements at both ends of supply and demand, improved imports and exports, the boom of large and small enterprises, and accelerated transformation and upgrading.

Data show that in November, the production index and new orders index were 52.6% and 51.3%, respectively, up 1.8 and 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, both new highs since the second half of the year, of which the new orders index returned to the expansion range.

RXE2N0Q0J132A Zhao Qinghe said that from the perspective of industry categories, the production index and new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine and beverage refined tea, medicine, automobiles, railway ships and aerospace equipment and other manufacturing industries both rose, and were located in the expansion range.

“This is due to the better implementation of counter-cyclical macroeconomic adjustment policies and tax and fee reduction policies.” The relevant person in charge of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said that at the same time, the domestic market demand potential has been released, and the year-end holiday consumption is expected to drive the development of the consumer goods industry.

RXE2N0Q0J132A The effect of the holidays was also reflected in this month’s import orders index. In November, the new import orders index was 49.8%, up 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the new export orders index was 48.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month.

In terms of enterprises, the PMI index of large, medium and small enterprises was 50.9%, 49.5% and 49.4%, respectively, higher than 1.0, 0.5 and 1.5 percentage points in the previous month, and the PMI of large enterprises returned to the expansion range again. The production index of three types of enterprises is also higher than last month, all above the critical point.

In this regard, the aforementioned person in charge believes that this is due to the relatively stable operation of a number of key industries and the recovery of growth rate, which has a better supporting effect on the stabilization of the economy, such as the recovery of demand in the construction industry to drive the expansion of steel supply and demand; The auto market is stabilizing; Central heating has driven the demand for fossil energy, and the growth rate of energy-consuming industries has rebounded.

RXE2N0Q0J132A It should be noted that the upgrading of the industrial structure of the manufacturing industry continues to be effective. Among them, the PMI of the technology manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing industry and consumer goods industry was 51.7%, 51.0% and 51.1%, respectively, which rose for two consecutive months. “Since the implementation of the deepened value-added tax reform in April this year, the tax reduction effect of the manufacturing industry has been obvious, which has effectively promoted the development of China’s high-tech industry and promoted industrial transformation and upgrading.” Bai Jingming, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, has said.

Since the beginning of this year, the reduction of taxes and fees in the manufacturing sector has continued to increase. For example, VAT, which applies mainly to manufacturing, will be cut from 16% to 13%; The accelerated depreciation policy for fixed assets was extended to all manufacturing sectors; Increase the deduction rate of R&D expenses from 50% to 75%.

RXE2N0Q0J132A According to the data disclosed by the State Administration of Taxation, in the first three quarters of this year, the manufacturing industry added 473.8 billion yuan of tax cuts, accounting for 31.36% of the total new tax cuts, and 45% of the manufacturing taxpayers used the policy dividend for research and development investment. Dividends benefit a number of listed companies, for example, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group in the first half of this year alone to enjoy VAT reduction of 140 million yuan, Shenyang Siasong Robot Automation Co., Ltd. is expected to enjoy a policy dividend of more than 19 million yuan in the whole year, Lenovo (Beijing) Co., Ltd. in 2019 has deducted 110 million yuan of research and development expenses. It is expected that the annual tax rebate of 100 million yuan and the VAT reduction rate of about 40 million yuan will be achieved.

RXE2N0Q0J132A “The positive force comes from the countercyclical adjustment force, the bottom of the industrial product inventory cycle, and the stabilization and recovery of PPI; The binding force is that the real estate regulation remains focused and the impact of trade frictions continues to deepen.” China Merchants Macro Research Report analysis pointed out that since September, monetary policy has paid more attention to the overall goal of counter-cyclical adjustment rather than structural inflation, and there has been a marginal relaxation; The fiscal policy is constrained by the pressure of fund gap, and the expansion is restrained. It is expected that the manufacturing PMI will continue to reduce the magnitude of the economic contraction during the year, but it is difficult to get out of the contraction range.

In addition, Zhao Qinghe said that some enterprises have achieved certain results in transformation and upgrading, but the problem of capital shortage is still prominent. It is reported that in November, the proportion of enterprises reflecting financial stress was 38.2%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the previous month.

On November 27, the Ministry of Finance said that with the consent of The State Council, the Ministry of Finance issued part of the new special debt limit of 1 trillion yuan in 2020 in advance, requiring all localities to implement the special bond limit to specific projects as soon as possible in accordance with the regulations to ensure that it can be used and effective early next year. Ma Xiaohe, vice president of the macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that policy support is on the one hand, and it is equally important to launch private enterprise investment.