IC687BEM731-AB On Monday (December 2), the latest release of the euro zone and Germany, France and two countries in November manufacturing PMI final value showed a significant rebound, previously released China and the United States and other major countries manufacturing data have also shown signs of recovery, so that the market began to pay attention to whether the manufacturing winter for nearly two years is about to pass.

IC687BEM731-AB Cicc Macro analysis in the latest report said that the recent positive signs of the global manufacturing industry may be partly due to the global central bank since the beginning of the year to significantly ease the bottom, demand gradually stabilized, manufacturing inventory demand gradually show.

IC687BEM731-AB “Looking ahead, we expect the worst for global manufacturing to be over as the restocking cycle kicks in.” Cicc macroeconomic research analyst Zhang Mengyun told the first financial reporter that whether the recovery can continue will still depend on the sustainability of the recovery of global demand, which will still depend on the progress of global trade frictions and global policies.

Global manufacturing is generally picking up

The latest data showed that the final manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in November was 46.9, and the expected and previous value were 46.6. At the same time, the final reading of German manufacturing PMI in November was 44.1 and France was 51.7, both better than market expectations and significantly higher than the previous value.

“The latest PMI data point to a positive reading for the French manufacturing sector in November,” said Eliot Kerr, economist at IHS MARKIT.

Not only the eurozone, but also the global manufacturing related indicators have improved recently, and the manufacturing PMI index in many countries has stabilized at a low level or even begun to rebound.

IC687BEM731-AB Among them, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI of the United States in November 52.2, higher than the previous month’s 51.3; Japan’s preliminary reading for November was 48.6, also up from 48.4 the previous month. On December 2, China’s November Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.8, better than the previous 51.7, and the forecast was only 51.5.

After a sustained decline since the beginning of 2018, Markit’s global manufacturing PMI index bottomed out at 49.5 in August, followed by a small recovery in September and October, reaching 49.8 in October.

“The newly released preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for November in some countries and regions continues to repair, indicating that this recovery trend is continuing.” Zhang Mengyun told the first financial reporter.

IC687BEM731-AB Improving manufacturing data clearly boosted market confidence. In the euro area, the German IFO sentiment survey in November and the euro zone economic sentiment index in November showed a marginal recovery, echoing the positive signal of the recovery of the preliminary manufacturing PMI in November previously announced. In addition, the monetary and credit data in October continued to be solid, M3 5.6% year-on-year, loans 3.7% year-on-year are stable and accelerating state, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy support effect is continuing to play a role.

The main European stock indexes opened significantly higher today, driven by better manufacturing data in the eurozone and Germany and France. Among them, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose about 0.5 percent; France’s CAC40 opened 0.13% higher after extending intraday gains by 0.7%; Germany’s DAX index rose nearly 0.8 percent.