Recently, a popular article on the Internet criticized “Industry 4.0” and strongly recommended AI. It seems to me that for many businesses, this proposition is likely to be replacing the hard road with a harder one, replacing a serious mistake with a more serious one.

There is a saying that the significance of historical events is often overestimated in the short term; Long term is often underestimated. The introduction of Industry 4.0 and the progress of AI are all of these types of events. Today’s problems are almost all caused by “short-term overvaluation.”

8440-2153 In the long run, the development of AI will affect the development process of the entire human race, which is very significant. But according to my judgment: if it is limited to 5 to 10 years, in addition to machine vision, Industry 4.0 theory will inspire industrial enterprises and draw lessons from ideas that are greater than AI. Moreover, for manufacturing enterprises, the difficulty of applying certain theories in Industry 4.0 is often lower than that of AI (especially large models). Some medium-sized manufacturing enterprises can directly learn from the idea and take the lead to do it themselves. The key technology of AI, I am afraid that almost all medium-sized enterprises have to use professional companies. Industrial enterprises to promote AI, generally rely on large companies to solve general problems, the formation of tools for ordinary companies to use products. This is just like most industrial companies are not suitable for developing their own CAD tool software. The average company can simply wait for an opportunity and pay attention. Ordinary enterprises pay too much attention to AI (especially large models) than to push Industry 4.0.

As mentioned earlier, China’s real problem is that it is “overvalued 8440-2153 in the short term” : there is a bubble. But from the perspective of social development, bubbles are not all bad things: 1 out of 10 enterprises is successful, which is a bubble; But successful companies affect 100, 1,000 companies. That’s what bubbles are for. This significance is aimed at the national and social levels. So it makes sense for countries to go too far in their policies. However, the key for enterprises is not to let themselves become 90% losers and become “martyrs” of digital technology. So, compared to the national level, the corporate level should do things a little more conservatively. This is all reasonable. So, what the state encourages, think for yourself.

Why is revolutionary technology always overrated in the short term? This requires an understanding of the basic logic of industrial development (what I call the genes of industry). Such as progressive (inheritance), scene dependence, economy, and so on. In other words: when an advanced theory or method appears, it does not change the world in a comprehensive way at once, but in a gradual process. Why is it gradual? It is because we should pay attention to economy and make progress that there is economy. Why does the success or failure of the project depend on the scene? Just because the economics of different scenarios are different. So, over a period of time, only certain scenarios that are particularly suitable will succeed.

So, I often say: What is good technology? For enterprises, not advanced technology is good technology, can make money technology is good technology.

Yesterday, an entrepreneur said that his company has 8440-2153 many new technologies, but the resources are limited, and he does not know what to push first. I told him: Push the technology to make money first. If you can earn money, you can ensure the survival of the enterprise and ensure financing, on this basis, you can maintain continuous improvement. Only through continuous improvement can we develop into a high-tech enterprise. To this end, I also told him the story of the fireman saving the girl (scientific and technological personnel should distinguish the key points and difficulties) : the difficulty of business management is not the technical competition, but the survival competition.

Therefore, when enterprises (especially small and medium-sized enterprises) promote technology, they must follow the principle of “value driven”. The problems encountered in the field of Industry 4.0 and industrial Internet are essentially caused by not following this principle. Just think: if the enterprise is making money, just using a little bit of Industry 4.0 and industrial Internet theory, can you say that he has failed? On the contrary, you strictly follow the theory of Industry 4.0 and Industrial Internet, but you 8440-2153 end up losing money. Can you say you succeeded?

The chaos in China shows that many people really do not understand innovation. What are the characteristics of innovation? Must be specific analysis of specific problems, combined with their own special scenes to do, rather than blindly imitate. The reason is simple: imitation is often uneconomical! Therefore, I often tell a joke: the small boss wants to imitate Jack Ma to become the big boss. Jack Ma bought a private jet, you buy a private jet?

Therefore, specific to every “martyr” type enterprise, the problem of industry 4.0 and industrial Internet is that they are not good at learning. Behind is not willing to move the brain, just handan to learn to walk, imitation. Trying to achieve creative success without thinking is a bit difficult.

In particular, we want to note that when new technologies emerge, they are often only suitable for the above scenarios (a few scenarios are economical). Therefore, when the speed of technology investment is greater than the speed of market development, it will lead to failure. In 2018, when GE gave up on the industrial Internet, I once gave a view: this failure is like “an elephant can’t drill a mouse hole.” The investment is too large, the current market is too small, and eventually it will be economically uneconomical and fail.

If the right scenario is found, some of the ideas of Industry 4.0 can be implemented. For example, I have always been more highly regarded Haizhi Online, is a typical support for “horizontal integration” platform. Last year, the president of the company was met by the Prime minister and suddenly became famous. In fact, a few years ago, when Xiangye was in Shanghai, I recommended this company through the United Front Work Department of the Shanghai Municipal Committee to have a talk with Xiangye. An important reason for their success is to find the right scene.

I have talked many times about what is suitable for success. For example, Guangdong’s promotion of “industrial clusters” is worth learning from. Because this approach can improve the economy through “knowledge reuse”. For example, some enterprise groups, through the integration of digitalization and automation, improve economy and realize knowledge reuse. I’m not going to talk about it here.

In addition, we should be careful about the development of foreign technology. What I found: Many people are not very clear about the reasons behind the industrial Internet in the United States. One reason Americans are pushing the industrial Internet is to address the problems caused by the exodus of manufacturing. “People outside the United States do the work,” and Americans master the technology and supply chain through the industrial Internet. In this sense, the approach of many American companies is successful.