Expected return to work bottom line: preferably in April

From Wu Jianming to Ge Wenzhi, and more manufacturing business owners interviewed by “Finance and Economics” reporters understand that although they are ready to resume work, there is still some time for the enterprise to operate normally.

810-234640-312 Tang Dajie told the “finance” reporter that the manufacturing industry is different from the service industry, the manufacturing industry has a logistics and capital flow cycle problem, from normal start to stock, production and then to cash flow, the general enterprise is two months for the cycle, so even if the start, the financial difficulties of the enterprise, also have a difficult two months; Second, the manufacturing industry needs smooth logistics, so the current road closures further affect the normal operation of the manufacturing industry; Third, the manufacturing industry relies on skilled jobs, and the restricted movement of people in the worst-hit areas will further affect the normal operation of enterprises.

Given that the current epidemic is difficult to predict, Ge Zhiwen has a conservative expectation that his company will be able to fully resume work by the end of March at the soonest. ‘The later you go back to work, the greater the risk of losing foreign business and losing foreign customers,’ he said. Can cause irreparable damage!

If the epidemic continues to spread, it will lead to a further delay in the resumption of manufacturing work, Wu Jianming will be the limit time point in April, “if the normal resumption of work in April, 30% of our park small and medium-sized enterprises will 810-234640-312 be hit hard or even shut down.” Different from large enterprises, these enterprises have little credit pressure because they get less financial services and do not have too high debt ratio. Moreover, enterprises entering the park platform can enjoy certain financial services, and their biggest pressure comes from the migration of industrial workers caused by shutdown.

Wu Jianming calculated a detailed account: To return to work on February 17, for example, employees will generally return on February 18 and 19 for two days, and then isolation for 14 days, there is another feature of the manufacturing industry, workers are mostly arriving in succession, the time lasts about 10 days. As a result, 60% of his current campus (Zhejiang Park) will not be operational until at least mid-March.

A number of manufacturing business owners interviewed by “Finance” reporters predicted that at least in late March to be able to operate normally. Tang Dajie said, to be honest, I can’t see the normal operation of the manufacturing industry at all, Hubei province will certainly be slower than the rest 810-234640-312 of the country to recover. Moreover, Hubei is located in the heart of China, and its population and logistics are involved in the business structure of the whole country, which will affect the national manufacturing industry and hinder the recovery of the entire economy. Second, business owners scale back when they anticipate a downturn in the economy.

The manufacturing business owners at home are not immersed in the haze of the epidemic, according to Wu Jianming, he will communicate with several business owners every day, once started, how to put into production as soon as possible, how to maximize efficiency and minimize the economic impact.

But these ideas await the return of work. Even if they are able to resume work, they still face problems in recruiting workers and securing supplies of raw materials. According to the “finance” reporter understands that compared with other industries, manufacturing production is seasonal characteristics, taking clothing production as an example, clothing companies should currently prepare autumn and winter clothing, the relevant raw materials are also synchronized supply, if the time has 810-234640-312 passed there is no way to arrange production.

How important is the need for manufacturing companies to rush to work in these extraordinary times? An epidemic expert told “Finance” reporter that this is to be divided into industries, the more closely linked to the people’s livelihood of the enterprise, the greater the necessity, the earlier the need to start. Of course, it should also be determined comprehensively according to the current inventory situation and other factors.

For labor-intensive industries, once started, it is necessary to establish an epidemic prevention and control management system, formulate emergency plans and work measures for epidemic prevention and control, and clarify the person in charge, especially for some environments that are prone to virus 810-234640-312 transmission, such as canthouses and toilets.

The epidemic experts pointed out that from the current point of view, the situation in different regions may not be synchronized, but may be gradually recovered, the first time node is around February 10, because it is the time when many regions were scheduled to end the holiday, there will be some regions and enterprises to try to resume work, the second time node is around February 20, that is, from now on, Adding another incubation period (two weeks) and fully resuming normal production may take about three months until the COVID-19 outbreak is fully controlled. However, the specific situation is likely to change due to the development of the epidemic and changes in national control measures.