According to a recent research report by Booz Allen Hamilton, a well-known consulting firm in the United States, China will account for 77 percent of the growth in global electronics production before 2005, while the share of Western Europe in the electronics industry will decline sharply.

Booz Allen-Hamilton Consulting Management is a world-renowned consulting firm with 12,000 employees, offices in more than 50 countries and annual sales of approximately $2.2 billion. In a joint study with the International Finance Corporation, part of the World Bank, the company says the global electronics industry is fighting a “war” to reduce costs and capture emerging markets. The main means of this “war” is to shift corporate activities to developing countries, not only the production of products to developing countries, but also to developing countries. There is also a tendency for product design and development to move to these emerging markets.

According to the report, while Europe’s electronics industry is declining at an accelerating rate due to the economic downturn, high wage costs and wage surcharges, emerging electronics markets in developing countries are growing exponentially. Production in these emerging markets will rise from $65 billion today to $125 billion by 2005, accounting for 43% of the industry’s global growth. China accounted for 77% of its emerging market output growth. The biggest growth potential will be in the display and semiconductor markets, the report added.

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Based on an in-depth survey of 120 electronics companies from around the world, the report concludes that developing countries offer the potential for wage and cost savings in the highly competitive electronics industry. Multinational companies in the electronics industry have transferred their business activities to developing countries, but also brought supporting service providers. The report uses mobile communications as an example to illustrate the trend: in the next three years, 48% of new mobile phone users will be in Asia. That makes Asia the most promising market for mobile phones, and manufacturers must produce locally to meet demand there.

China is the leader in the emerging electronics market and the biggest winner from the “corporate shift” trend. By 2005, China will have 14.3% of the global electronics market, up from 8.1% today, and will be worth $80 billion. (By then, the Western electronics industry will be worth an estimated $73 billion.) At present, China has taken the first place in electronics manufacturing in developing countries. Eighty-three percent of electronic display products come from developing countries, with China accounting for 44 percent of them. In addition, the Asia-Pacific region produces 78 percent of the world market for electrical sockets and cables. Other future winners are Southeast Asia, emerging markets in eastern Europe and Mexico, while Western Europe will lose more and more markets, the report predicts.

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