1. Optimistic about the industrial robot track, benefiting from the dual drive of intelligent manufacturing + localization

1.1. “Robot +” wind, optimistic about the relevant industrial chain opportunities

The era of “robot +” is approaching, and we are optimistic about the opportunities of related industrial chains. Robots are widely used in modern society, covering automotive and 3C manufacturing industries, catering and medical services, power and nuclear industries and other special fields. With the advancement of technologies such as AI man-machine interaction and embodiment intelligence, and the commercialization of products such as ChatGPT and humanoid robots, “the application density and breadth of various robots are expected to achieve a leap forward, resulting in changes to existing production relations, and” robot + “has become the next industrial tuyere after” Internet + “and” new energy + “.

1.2. Optimistic about the industrial robot circuit, intelligent manufacturing + localization dual drive

Industrial robots are one of the certainty tracks of the industrial chain, benefiting from the dual drive of intelligent manufacturing and localization. Industrial machines are known as the “pearl in the crown of manufacturing”, which is the embodiment of a country’s manufacturing capability. IFR and Chinese Institute of Electronics data show that in 2021, China’s robot market size reached 99.4 billion yuan, of which industrial robots 52.5 billion yuan, accounting for 53%, much higher than service robots and special robots. In the industrial robot industry chain, the middle and downstream are the core parts, robot ontology manufacturing and system integration, in which the ontology manufacturer is located in the core link of the industrial robot, the ontology manufacturer often travels the whole industrial chain layout, in addition to the reducer purchase, servo system and controller are the core technology of the ontology manufacturer, generally made by itself. Reducer link is generally purchased, representative manufacturers include RV reducer Nabotsk, double ring transmission, Zhongda De, harmonic reducer Hamanaco, green harmonic, big family, Rafu and so on.

VMIVME-7700 350-007700-111000 H

VMIVME-7700 350-007700-111000 H

China is the largest market for industrial robots, with a market size of 60.9 billion yuan in 2022, accounting for 45% of the world’s total. Industrial robots have been widely used in industries such as automobiles, electronics, metal products, plastics and chemical products, and the epidemic has accelerated the digital transformation of various industries, and robots have become an important tool for enterprises to resume work and production. Data from IFR and the Chinese Institute of Electronics show that after two consecutive years of downturn from 2019-2020, the industrial robot market rebounded strongly in 2021, and the global market size reached 122.5 billion yuan, an increase of 26%. As a global manufacturing center, China’s industrial robot demand continues to expand, in 2022, China’s industrial robot market size of about 60.9 billion yuan, accounting for 45% of the world. Industrial robot automation production line equipment has become the mainstream of automation equipment and the future development direction, is expected to 2021-2024 global/China industrial robot market size compound annual growth rate of 9.5%/15.3%.

In 2022, the sales volume of industrial robots in China is about 280,000 units, with a CAGR of 26% from 2011 to 2022, and the sales volume has increased tenfold in ten years. China is the world’s largest market for industrial robots, with the proportion of global industrial robot sales rising from 14% in 2011 to 49% in 2021. Since 2019, under the influence of adverse factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war, energy shortages, and epidemics, the growth rate of global industrial robot sales has slowed down, while China’s proportion has continued to increase. According to IFR and MIR data, the global industrial robot sales volume in 2022 is 570,000 units, an increase of 10% year-on-year, and a CAGR of 12% in 2011-2022; In 2022, China’s industrial robot sales of about 280,000 units, 2011-2022 CAGR 26%, an increase of 10%. Looking to the future, the global industrial robot market is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of about 10%, and the penetration rate of industrial robots in China is still doubled, and the growth rate is expected to be higher than that of the world.

2023Q1 Industrial robot sales 66,000 units, down 3% year-on-year, down 13% quarter-on-quarter. From the downstream point of view, photovoltaic, automotive electronics market performance is better, the photovoltaic market mainly benefits from the technology iteration generated by the equipment renewal demand, new energy vehicles, lithium, medical and other industries have fallen in the short term, electronics, metal products industry recovery less than expected, dragging down industry sales. Looking forward to the whole year, we are still optimistic about the growth of industrial robots, which is expected to show a low and high trend throughout the year, and is expected to usher in a rebound in the second half of the year.