✓ By 2022, China’s industrial robot market will reach 60.9 billion yuan, accounting for 45% of the world’s total, making it the largest market. In 2022, 280,000 units of domestic industrial robots were sold, with a CAGR of 26% from 2011 to 2022, and sales increased tenfold in the decade; It is expected that China’s robot sales CAGR will be 14% in 2022-2025

✓ In 2022, the localization rate of industrial robots in China is only 35%, and the market share of domestic leading Eston/Huichuan robots is only 6%/5%, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in localization.

✓ The link of low localization rate is summarized as three points:

1) The big six axis: in 2022, the localization rate is only 17%, and the domestic leader Eston has a share of 8%, leading the domestic substitution.

2) Automotive 3C: In 2022, the sales volume of robots in the automotive and 3C industry accounted for 47%, with a large market and low localization rate. Under the trend of integration of lithium and automobiles, domestic brands have expanded from photovoltaic and lithium to traditional 3C and automotive industries.

3) Welding: In 2021, the localization rate of welding robots is only 34%, Kelda focuses on the welding robot business, and Eston is expected to make breakthroughs in the welding field in the future by acquiring CLOOS to complement the domestic thick plate welding short plate.

1. Optimistic about the industrial robot track, benefiting from the dual drive of intelligent manufacturing + localization

“Robot +” industrial chain panorama

In the industrial robot industry chain, the middle and downstream are the core parts, robot ontology manufacturing and system integration, in which the ontology manufacturer is located in the core link of the industrial robot, the ontology manufacturer is often on the middle and downstream of the whole industry chain layout, in addition to the reducer purchase, servo system and controller are the core technology of the ontology manufacturer, generally homemade. Reducer link is generally purchased, representative manufacturers include RV reducer Nabotsk, double ring transmission, Zhongda De, harmonic reducer Hamanaco, green harmonic, big family, Rafu and so on.

Industrial robot industry chain: upstream core parts, midstream robot ontology, downstream system integration

2. Speed up the localization of industrial robots, focusing on low localization rate links such as big six axes and welding

2.1. The localization rate of industrial robots is only 36%, and localization is the right time

In 2022, the four families will account for 39% of the industrial robot market in China

In 2022, the localization rate of industrial robots in China is only 36%, and the share of leading Eston/Huichuan is only 6%/5%, and the localization prospect is broad. The long-term monopolies are four overseas giants, Fanuc and Yaskawa Electric of Japan, as well as ABB of Switzerland and Kuka of Germany. In 2022, the localization rate of industrial robots in China is only 35%, of which Fanuc /ABB/ Yaskawa/Kuka sales in China are 4.3/2.3/2.3/22,000 units, with a market share of 15%/8%/8%/8%, accounting for a total of 40%. In the same period, China’s industrial robot leader Eston/Huichuan technical robot sales market share is only 6%/5%.

China’s industrial robot market is dominated by four major foreign families, and domestic substitution prospects are broad

2.2. Focus on the link of low localization rate: big six axis, automobile 3C, welding

The link with low localization rate has large growth space, high barriers and good profitability. In summary, the link with low localization rate is summarized as three keywords: big six axis, automobile 3C, welding.

(1) Major six axes: The localization rate in 2022 is only 17%, and Eston leads the domestic substitution. Industrial robots can be divided into large six-axis (> 20KG) and small six-axis (≤20KG) robots, SCARA robots, Delta robots and collaborative robots. Large six-axis robots are the largest category, accounting for 35% of sales in 2022, and is expected to account for 40%-50% of value. Because the downstream of the big six axis is mainly used in the automotive industry, and assembly, welding, loading and unloading have high requirements for robot load, accuracy and stability, which are mainly monopolized by the traditional four families, the localization rate of the big six axis in 2022 is only 17%, far lower than the average localization rate of 35%. In the localization rate is low, high barriers to the big six axis link, domestic leader Eston in the forefront, in 2022 Eston big six axis accounted for 46% of the company’s robot sales, the industry share of 8%, leading the domestic alternative.