First, the product function is becoming more and more perfect, and the future growth is expected to be high

(1) Product functions are becoming more and more perfect, and physical and visual abilities are improving simultaneously

The research and development of humanoid robot products is gradually promoted, and the functions are becoming more and more perfect. In August 2021, Tesla unveiled the Optimus robot project for the first time, and expressed the design concept by means of real stage performance; In September 2022, a humanoid robot prototype was publicly unveiled and was able to perform and walk on stage; In May 2023, according to the video released by Tesla’s official website, multiple humanoid robots can be seen to perform tasks simultaneously or separately, and the new changes include: (1) physical capabilities: the physical capabilities of the robot are gradually improved, such as walking, grasping objects, sensing soft objects, and applying limited forces using motor torque control; (2) Visual ability: the robot has Tesla visual AI, which can discover and remember the surrounding environment, and the Tesla robot and the car are connected to the same neural network, and the same fully autonomous driving system (FSD) is installed; (3) Synchronous control: Tesla can control multiple robots at the same time, connect to the same neural network (NN), and can perform tasks simultaneously, laying the foundation for industrial applications.

FTA-544 17-550544-001B

FTA-544 17-550544-001B

(2) Machine substitutes have potential, and the market space is expected to be high

It is expected that in the future, humanoid robots will be penetrated at high speed in various fields such as industry and life by virtue of their performance advantages. According to Goldman Sachs and Payscale data, the average hourly wage of Tesla factory workers is $23.75 and they work 8 hours a day. Assuming that humanoid robots can meet the needs of factory operations in 25-26 years and work 20 hours a day (the rest of the time is for charging and maintenance), investment costs can be recovered in about 2 years, which is commercially viable. Goldman Sachs neutral estimates that the future humanoid robot market is about $6 billion, and the most optimistic estimate of the market is over $100 billion. According to Goldman Sachs forecasts, under neutral assumptions, humanoid robots will fill 4% of the U.S. manufacturing labor gap by 2030, and fill 2% of the global pension demand gap by 2035, and it is expected that the market size of humanoid robots will reach $6 billion in the next 10-15 years. In the most optimistic scenario, if humanoid robots completely overcome a series of obstacles such as product design, price, technology, and public acceptance to be fully popularized, the market size in 2035 will reach $154 billion, close to the global electric vehicle market in 2021. At present, humanoid robots are still in the stage of product development, and industrial application is still a long way to go.

According to our estimates, the potential market for humanoid robots is about 10 billion dollars. Suppose humanoid robots take the lead in logistics, nursing, and hazardous workplaces in the United States. According to U.S. News, the minimum wage in the United States in 2021 is about $10 / hour, and the annual salary of each position is calculated based on 8 hours per day and 250 working days, and the premium of about 3 times is assumed for dangerous positions. Combined with wind’s US Bureau of Labor employment estimates, taking into account the machine replacement rate we forecast above, the potential market for the US in the future is expected to reach tens of billions of dollars. In summary, although humanoid robots are still in the research and development stage, the future industrialization is still uncertain, but the market potential is large. If it is successfully industrialized and effectively promoted, the market space ranges from 10 billion to 100 billion dollars.