The pressure of foreign trade growth increases the problem of accounts recovery is still troubled

With the implementation of various measures to strengthen the real economy and promote industrial transformation and upgrading, the industrial structure of the machinery industry has continued to optimize, new momentum has continued to grow, and the quality of development has steadily improved.

The improvement of equipment supply capacity continues to promote the green energy transformation; Intelligent and green transformation brings together new driving forces for development; China’s foreign trade has become more dynamic. The mix of export products has been continuously improved, and the export of high-tech products has increased significantly. Steady progress has been made in building an innovation system, and innovation achievements have continued to emerge. The basic capacity of industries and the modernization of industrial chains continued to improve.

“The indicators of rapid growth boosted the confidence of the industry, but objectively, the comparison base of the previous year is too low is a reason for the formation of the main indicators of the machinery industry in the second quarter.” From the two-year average growth rate, the operating income and total profit growth of the machinery industry in the first half of the year were 7.4% and 2.8%, respectively, and there was a significant gap from the double-digit year-on-year growth of the above indicators in the first half of the year. In absolute terms, the average monthly completion of total operating income and profit in the first half of the year was below the average monthly level for the whole of last year. At present, the operation of the machinery industry is still facing multiple risks and challenges from internal and external, and the pressure of stable operation of the industry remains.” Luo Junjie reminds.

In its view, the difficulties and problems facing the operation of the machinery industry are still severe, mainly reflected in the following four aspects.

The domestic market is recovering less than expected. In the first half of the year, China’s economic recovery showed the characteristics of wave-like development and zigzag forward, domestic demand recovery was less than expected, and the mechanical products market was not prosperous. Since April, the manufacturing PMI new orders index has been below the critical value for four consecutive months. Machinery enterprises in hand orders are insufficient, short single most. Recent special survey shows that 60% of enterprises feedback there is a lack of orders, the proportion of 6 percentage points higher than the end of the first quarter; 34% of the enterprises in hand orders only meet the production of nearly one month, 48% of the enterprises meet the production of the third quarter of this year, and some of the signed projects have been postponed. The full and effective recovery of the market may require a certain repair period.

The pressure to maintain foreign trade growth has increased. Affected by multiple factors such as the trade squeeze caused by the repair of the global supply chain and the slowdown in the recovery of developed economies, downward pressure on the external demand market has gradually emerged. In the past three months, the amount of foreign trade exports of the machinery industry has continued to decline from the previous quarter. In June, the exports of 13 branches of the 14 sub-industries of the machinery industry declined month-on-month, the export amount of the automobile industry, which performed well in the previous period, fell 12.3% month-on-month, and the export amount of the heavy mining, mechanical basic parts, robots and intelligent manufacturing industries also showed a double-digit decline; In particular, the export amount of the machinery industry in the month fell for the first time this year. From the perspective of trading partners, the exports of the machinery industry to the three major trading partners of the United States, Russia and Germany fell in June, down 11.8%, 2.7% and 5.3%, respectively. At the same time, affected by the interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the shortage of foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets and developing countries has led to difficulties in foreign exchange payment by users, and the new signing orders from Africa, South America and other countries have declined. According to the recent special survey, 55% of the overseas orders in hand only meet the production of nearly one month, and 30% of the enterprises meet the production of the third quarter of this year; The number of companies expecting year-on-year declines in exports rose to 28% from 22% at the end of the first quarter.

The problem of difficult collection of accounts is still plaguing the whole industry. As of the end of June, the total accounts receivable of the machinery industry was 7.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.7%, higher than the national industrial accounts receivable growth rate of 9 percentage points, accounting for more than 1/3 of the total industrial accounts receivable in the country; The average collection period of machinery industry accounts receivable was 96 days, higher than 7.3 days in the same period of last year, and 32.8 days higher than the national industrial average in the same period (63.2 days). The results of the special survey show that in the first half of the year, 56% of enterprises’ accounts receivable increased, 24% of enterprises remained flat; 48% reported a year-on-year increase in overdue accounts receivable.

Some industries are under great downward pressure. Under the high growth rate, the operation differentiation between the internal branches of the machinery industry is obvious, and some industries are facing greater downward pressure. Agricultural machinery industry at the end of last year emission standards switched, related products cleared. After a brief restocking cycle at the beginning of the year, production slowed significantly. In the first half of the year, the output of 7 kinds of 10 key monitoring products fell, and the industry’s operating income fell 10.7% year-on-year, and the total profit fell 12%. Bearings, fasteners, industrial chains and a wide range of basic products are mainly fuel vehicles, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles declined. In the first half of the year, traditional fuel vehicles accounted for 71.4% of total automobile production, down 6.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and supporting enterprises in the original industrial chain were under pressure. In the first half of the year, the operating income of the mechanical basic parts industry fell by 1.6% year-on-year, and the added value of the general equipment manufacturing industry in June turned from positive to negative, down 0.2% year-on-year, and the decline in the second half of the year will continue to expand.

It is worth mentioning that in the second half of the year, the factors that are good for the operation and development of the machinery industry are being released. We have recently introduced a number of policies and measures to promote consumption, stabilize investment, and improve the business environment. The combination of existing policies and incremental policies will effectively improve the development environment, enhance market confidence, further release market potential, and play a positive role in promoting the sustained recovery of economic performance. Secondly, with the major projects and key projects in the “14th Five-Year Plan” plan to further start construction, infrastructure construction is accelerating, real estate construction is out of the bottom, and the transformation of high-end, intelligent and green traditional industries is accelerating, and the demand market is expected to accelerate the recovery.

“Looking forward to the second half of the year, the domestic market of the machinery industry will further improve and improve, and the development environment will continue to optimize; However, the current industry is still facing problems such as weak market demand and difficult accounts recovery, and there is downward pressure in some sub-industries.” Luo Junjie predicted.

On the one hand, the risk of world economic recession is rising, inflation expectations are continuing, escalating geopolitical conflicts threaten the recovery of global trade, developed economies are increasing their demand for supply chain diversification, and the game between major powers is intensifying in key areas. On the other hand, although the triple pressure on the domestic market has been eased, it still faces multiple tests such as weak internal impetus, sluggish demand, and new obstacles to economic transformation.