Humanoid robots need to perform complex tasks, which requires manual “dexterity”. According to the Design of Tendine-Driven Human-like Five-finger dexterous Hand by Lai Miao et al., there are many transmission methods for dexterous hands at present, and the common ones include gear transmission, connecting rod transmission and tendon transmission. Tendon transmission uses steel wire rope to imitate the tendon part of the human hand, the driver is placed outside the palm or arm, and the tendon rope is used to achieve long-distance transmission, which simplifies the structural design of the finger. Compared with the gear and connecting rod, the weight and friction of the steel wire rope are smaller. We speculate that the Tesla humanoid robot adopts the classic six-motor + metal tendon rope scheme.

The humanoid robot adopts an integrated scheme to pursue a higher lightweight and compact structure. The hand adopts a lightweight and efficient hollow cup motor, and the body part adopts an integrated joint composed of frameless motors. Tesla Optimus has a total of 28 motion joints, including three rotary actuators and three linear actuators: the rotary joint adopts the scheme of motor + sensor + harmonic reducer; The linear joint uses a motor + lead screw + sensor (from the shape, we speculate that it is a frameless motor); Tesla robot dexterous hand adopts a compromise scheme, using a more classic six-motor drive mode, the thumb uses a double motor to drive bending and side swing, and the other four fingers are driven by a motor, and the motor uses a worm transmission mechanism. From the number point of view, there are 12 drives, and the finger part is presumed to be composed of hollow cup motor + drive device + transmission device.

The robot motor market accounts for about 1% of the motor market, and the growth rate is relatively fast. Skyquest estimates that the global robot-related motor scale will be $1.1 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach $2.8 billion in 2030, with a compound growth rate of 13.4%. According to data released by Fortune Business Insights, the global motor market size is about $113.9 billion in 2021, and the market share of robot-related motors is about 1%, but the growth rate is relatively fast.

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We believe that humanoid robots are expected to replicate the growth path of Tesla new energy vehicles and quickly achieve large-scale mass production. The sales volume of Tesla’s new energy vehicles exceeded 100,000 in the first five years and reached one million in the second five years, demonstrating Tesla’s strong mass production capacity. We believe that humanoid robots are expected to replicate the 0-1 process of Tesla new energy vehicles, and it is expected to be quickly scaled up after the initial volume. Under the previous scheme, the humanoid robot body has 28 frameless motors, and the hand corresponds to 12 hollow cup motors. Assuming that after the humanoid robot is mass produced, the value of frameless motors is 800 yuan/piece and the hollow cup motors are 1000 yuan/piece, the motor market space corresponding to 1 million humanoid robots is about 34.4 billion yuan.

Domestic enterprises accelerate the promotion of humanoid robot related projects + landing scene gradually clear, optimistic about humanoid robot accelerated landing. 1) Domestic enterprises have entered the robot project, recently Fourier Intelligence released the latest research and development of general humanoid robot GR-1, GR-1 is the leading independent research and development, commercial landing humanoid robot products, showing the robot straight leg walking, agile obstacle avoidance and other functions, the domestic humanoid robot is advancing rapidly. In addition, Huawei and ByteDance have also entered the local robot business; Tencent Robotics X Lab released the research results of dexterous operation, and launched the self-developed robotic dexterous hand “TRX-Hand” and robotic arm “TRX-Arm”. We believe that a number of domestic enterprises have entered the robot-related links, which is expected to accelerate the landing of humanoid robots. 2) Humanoid robots are expected to land in factory scenes. At the second quarter 2023 earnings presentation, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced the latest progress of Tesla’s much-anticipated humanoid robot Optimus. Musk said Tesla has already produced 10 humanoid robots. A walking test is expected in November of this year, and practical testing is planned for next year at the Tesla factory.