According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released, the global manufacturing PMI in September 2023 was 48.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and increased for three consecutive months. By region, Asian manufacturing PMI continued to rise slightly above 50%; The manufacturing PMI in the Americas has risen for three consecutive months below 50%; Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell below 50%, hitting a new low since April this year; European manufacturing PMI ended seven consecutive months of decline, rising from the previous month, but still at a low level of about 45%.

The global manufacturing PMI has continued to rise slightly, and the index level is still below 50%, showing that the global economy has shown a continued weak repair trend since the third quarter, and the recovery strength still needs to be improved. In September, the continued pick-up in manufacturing in China and the United States was the main driving force behind the continued repair of the global manufacturing sector. Although the new export order index of China and the United States is still at a low level, it has shown two consecutive month-on-month rising trend, showing that the downward pressure on export demand of the two major economies has eased signs, to a certain extent, reflecting the global economic repair trend continues to improve at the margin. In view of the continued repair of the global economy, the OECD raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 to 3% from 2.7% previously.

The sustained repair of the economy in the third quarter has not changed the overall pattern of low global economic growth. In addition to the ongoing pressure of demand contraction and inflation, the uncertain impact of trade barriers is one of the main external effects that are hampering the global economic recovery. Countries around the world should abandon the concept of confrontation, reduce or even avoid trade frictions, and move toward cooperation in actions, so as to provide more convenience and cooperation opportunities for global trade. Inspired by the impact of the epidemic, strengthening cooperation in the industrial chain and supply chain in the region has repeatedly emerged. However, strengthening regional supply chains should not be based on blocking global economic cooperation, but should continue to expand the chain on the basis of consolidating regional cooperation, and form global industrial and supply chains of mutual trust, so as to promote sustained recovery of the global economy.

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The decline in European manufacturing moderated, with PMI rising slightly

In September 2023, the European manufacturing PMI was 45.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, ending the trend of seven consecutive months of decline, but still below 50% for 14 consecutive months. From the perspective of major countries, Russia’s manufacturing industry continued to maintain rapid growth, PMI rose to 54.5%, rising for two consecutive months. The manufacturing PMI of Germany, Britain, Italy and Spain all rose to different degrees compared with the previous month, but all at a low level, and the German manufacturing PMI is still below 40%; The French manufacturing PMI fell below 45 per cent, down almost 2 percentage points from the previous month.

Composite index changes, the European manufacturing PMI ended the downward trend, rising from the previous month, but the index is still at a low level, showing that the decline in the European manufacturing industry has narrowed, the downward pressure has eased from the previous month, but still not out of the weak operation situation. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates to a record high because of persistent inflationary pressures in Europe. Judging from the latest statement of the ECB, the current level of interest rates will remain for some time, and whether it will change depends on the inflation outlook and underlying inflation dynamics. In September, the eurozone CPI was 4.3% year-on-year, the lowest level in nearly two years, but still above the European Central Bank’s 2% target, as long as this target is not changed, the European Central Bank may continue to maintain the current level of interest rates, and even do not rule out the possibility of further interest rate increases. In the face of the current economic situation in Europe, the EU has lowered the EU economic growth forecast for 2023 from the previous 1% to 0.8%; Cut its growth forecast for the euro zone to 0.8 percent from 1.1 percent previously.