Downstream demand continues to improve, and domestic substitutes continue to deduce

The downstream industrial robot industry is developing rapidly, and the reducer market is gradually opening

The field of high precision transmission such as downstream industrial robots and high-end CNC machine tools has developed rapidly. There is a large gap in the overall supply of high-precision transmission parts represented by precision harmonic reducer products, and the demand for high-precision transmission products is increasing day by day, and the demand of downstream equipment manufacturers has not yet been met. Prospective Industry Research Institute predicts that in 2024, China’s CNC machine tool market size will reach 572.8 billion yuan, and industrial robot sales are expected to continue to expand.

Global: The industrial robot market has entered a period of stable growth. According to IFR data, the annual installation of global industrial robots from 2016 to 2021 shows a growing trend, and the global industrial robot stock has maintained a high growth rate of more than 10% since 2014, and the global industrial robot stock has reached 34.77 million units in 2021. The downstream industry demand for precision transmission devices, including precision reducers and mechatronics, continues to expand. Innovation institutions and enterprises in the global robot industry continue to explore technology research and development and scenario development, and their applications in automobile manufacturing, electronic manufacturing, warehousing and transportation, medical rehabilitation, emergency rescue and other fields continue to expand, promoting the continued vigorous development of the robot industry. According to data from IFR and the Chinese Society of Electronics, the global robot market will exceed $42 billion in 2021, of which the industrial robot market will reach $17.5 billion, service robots will reach $17.2 billion, and special robots will reach $8.2 billion. The Chinese Society of Electronics predicts that by 2024, the global robot market will exceed $65 billion.

To break the monopoly situation of Japanese manufacturers, domestic substitution is in progress

Global harmonic reducer market: steady growth, Japanese companies are the largest. The global harmonic reducer market is growing steadily. According to the data of Huajing Industrial Research Institute, the global robot downstream harmonic reducer market size in 2021 is 2.3 billion yuan, is expected to reach 2.9 billion yuan in 2022, close to 4.9 billion yuan in 2025, and the market space CAGR in 2022-2025 is about 19.1%. The global harmonic reducer market is more concentrated. The main participants are Japan’s Hamenako and Xinbao, China’s Green Harmonics and Zhongji Kemi. In 2020, Hamenaco’s global market share is greater than 82%, and Green Harmonics accounts for 7% of the market share. According to the data of Foresight network, in the global precision reducer market in 2022, the top two Japanese brands Nabotsk and Hamanaco monopolized 75% of the market share.

8200-1300

China’s RV reducer market is expected to further expand. According to MIR data, the size of China’s RV reducer market in 2021 is 4.295 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 6.553 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.1%. The domestic RV reducer market is highly concentrated. According to the estimates of the China Economic Industry Research Institute, in 2021, the industry leader Nabotsk accounted for 51.8% of the domestic RV reducer market, followed by the domestic manufacturer double-ring transmission with 15.1%. In recent years, with the development of domestic RV reducer, the market share of Japanese enterprises in China has been lower than the global level and has a decreasing trend, and the market share of Nabotsk in 2021 has decreased by 3% compared with 2020, and the market share of Sumitomo has decreased by 2.3%, while the market share of domestic manufacturers double-ring transmission and China Dalide has increased. The market share of double-ring transmission increased by 5.8%, and China vigorously Germany increased by 1%.

Key company analysis

Qinchuan Machine tool: The old state-owned enterprises regrouped, the vertical integration of the reducer to promote endogenous growth

China’s machine tool industry veteran leader, products involved in a wide range of fields. Qinchuan Machine tool is a national high-tech enterprise and innovative pilot enterprise, the products are mainly divided into machine tools, parts, tools, instruments and meters four plates, the core products are high-end CNC equipment, robot reducer, precision gear box, precision instruments and meters, intelligent manufacturing. Old machine tool state-owned enterprises regrouped, gradually out of the trough. The company’s operating situation from 2012 to 2019 was volatile, with cost overruns of 238 million yuan in 2019, impairment losses of various assets of 257 million yuan, and losses widening. Since 2020, the company has established the “5221” strategy, focused on lean management, cleaned up loss-making enterprises, and acquired high-quality equity shares. The combination of attacks has achieved remarkable results and achieved a turnaround.

High-end manufacturing focuses on promoting, and the reducer provides lever fulcrum. In 2020, the company’s first robot reducer is offline, marking the company’s robot reducer digital project is officially put into use. The company has become a robot joint reducer R & D and manufacturing base, the goal of the reducer to create an important power point for high-end precision manufacturing, as of 2023H1 has 5 series, 23 kinds of grid, 130 kinds of speed ratio RV reducer, various types, wide coverage of models. Master the core technology of production equipment, and coordinate to promote endogenous growth. According to Fengli intelligent inquiry reply, ultra-precision lathes and rigid flexible wheel processing equipment account for a relatively large investment in special equipment for the reducer. As the research and development and manufacturing base of precision CNC machine tools and complex tools in China, Qinchuan Machine Tools has mastered the development ability of core processing equipment for reducer.