First, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index remained in the expansion range

In August, the expansion of the manufacturing industry has weakened, and the economic outlook has narrowed. Of the 21 industries surveyed, 10 industries PMI was in the boom range, down three from the previous month. Key features of this month:

First, production activities were generally stable. The production index was 50.9%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the index fluctuated less, and the manufacturing production maintained steady expansion. From the perspective of the industry situation, the production index of agricultural and sidelined food processing, paper and printing, culture, education, sports and entertainment supplies, railway, shipping and aerospace equipment and other industries is located in the higher boom range of 55.0% or more, and the production growth is accelerated; Oil, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, automotive and other industries production index is lower than the critical point, production decreased.

Second, market demand has weakened. The new orders index was 49.6 percent, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical point. This month, the new order index of high-energy industries fell significantly, and the overall negative pull of the manufacturing industry was obvious, including the new order index of oil, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber and plastic products and other industries was below the critical point for three consecutive months, reflecting the continued decline in market demand. In addition, some survey enterprises reflect the impact of the epidemic flood situation and other factors, raw material supply and product delivery is not smooth, the production cycle is extended, and new orders are reduced. At the same time, the market demand of some industries rose steadily this month, and the new order index of food and wine and beverage refined tea, medicine, special equipment and other industries was located in the expansion range, and higher than the level of last month and the same period last year.

Third, both price indices fell. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 61.3% and 53.4% respectively, down 1.6 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the difference between the two price indexes narrowed for three consecutive months, from 12.2 percentage points in May to 7.9 percentage points. From the main raw material purchase price index, the survey of 21 industries are higher than the critical point, of which oil, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry index fell significantly, but textile, chemical raw materials and chemical products, non-metallic mineral products and other industries are still higher than 65.0%, related enterprises procurement cost pressure is still large. From the ex-factory price index, oil, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber and plastic products and other industries fell by 12.0 percentage points or more, falling below the critical point for the first time since May.

Fourth, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises is in the expansion range. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was 50.3% and 51.2%, respectively, which fell and rose compared with the previous month, and were at the critical point or above for six consecutive months, indicating that the operation situation of large and medium-sized enterprises is relatively stable. The PMI of small enterprises was 48.2%, lower than the critical point for four consecutive months, indicating that the prosperity level of small enterprises continues to be low and the pressure of production and operation is greater.

Fifth, enterprises have stable confidence in market development. The expected index of production and business activities was 57.5%, which continued to be located in the higher boom range, and among the 21 industries surveyed, except the textile industry and ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry, other industries were above the critical point. Some enterprises in the survey reflected that as the impact of the epidemic flood situation gradually subsided, production and operation will soon return to normal, and enterprises are still optimistic about future development expectations.

Second, the non-manufacturing business activity index fell significantly

The non-manufacturing business activity index was 47.5% in August, down 5.8 percentage points from the previous month and the first time it has fallen below the critical point since March 2020.

Construction rose to a high boom zone. The construction production activity accelerated this month, and the business activity index was 60.5%, higher than 3.0 percentage points last month, returning to the high boom range. Among them, the civil engineering construction business activity index was 60.8%, a sharp increase of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of market demand and employment, the new orders index and the employment index are both in the expansion range, indicating that the number of new contracts signed in the construction industry and the employment of enterprises have increased.

The economy level of the service industry fell sharply. The epidemic in many provinces and multiple points has had a great impact on the service industry, which is still in the process of recovery, and the business activity index of the service industry was 45.2%, lower than 7.3 percentage points in the previous month, which fell below the critical point for the first time this year. From the perspective of industry, the epidemic has inhibited the release of demand for contact cluster service industries, and the business activity index of road transport, air transport, accommodation, catering, leasing and business services, ecological protection and environmental governance, culture, sports and entertainment industries has dropped below the critical point, and the total business volume has decreased significantly. At the same time, wholesale, postal, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and other industries were higher than 54.0%, and the total business continued to grow. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 57.3%, which is located in the higher boom range, indicating that with the effective control of the epidemic and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, enterprises are more optimistic about the recovery of the service market in the near future.

Third, the composite PMI output index fell below the critical point

In August, the composite PMI output index was 48.9%, 3.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have slowed down significantly compared with the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 50.9% and 47.5%, respectively.