The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology was held recently. The meeting pointed out that in 2023, China’s industrial economy showed a good trend of recovery, and it is expected that the annual industrial added value increased by more than 4.3%, the proportion of manufacturing added value to GDP was basically stable, and the overall scale remained the first in the world for 14 consecutive years.

At the same time, the key tasks in the field of industry and information technology in 2024 were deployed, among which the steady growth of industrial economy was ranked first among the 12 key tasks next year. The IC695ETM001-EK meeting required that the implementation of stable growth policies should be effective, the in-depth implementation of the work plan for stable growth of the ten industries, the support of large industrial provinces to continue to “carry the lead”, the deepening of raw materials and consumer goods “three products” action, and the boost of new energy vehicles, electronic products and other bulk consumption. At the same time, we will accelerate the cultivation of emerging industries, create new growth points such as bio-manufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy, introduce action plans for future industrial development, target humanoid robots, quantum information and other industries, and strive to break through key technologies, IC695ETM001-EK cultivate key products, and expand scenarios.

Guan Bing, director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of CCID Research Institute, told the China Securities Journal reporter that in the first 10 months of 2023, China’s industrial investment increased by 8.9% year-on-year, leading the growth rate of fixed asset investment by 6 percentage points. Looking forward to 2024, industrial investment is expected to continue to grow rapidly, and is expected to grow by about 8.5% for the whole year. Overall, the added value of China’s industrial enterprises above designated size is expected to grow by about 4.5% in 2024.

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Boost big purchases

The meeting mentioned that in 2024, it is necessary to deepen the “three products” action of raw materials and consumer goods, and boost the mass consumption of new energy vehicles and electronic products.

Li Boyang, director of the Consumer goods Industry Research Institute of CCID Research Institute, introduced that from the perspective of consumption recovery in 2023, commodity consumption is slower than service consumption, and optional consumption is slower than mandatory consumption. He analyzed that income is the premise of consumption, the first three quarters of 2023 residents per capita disposable income of the real growth of 5.9%, compared with the pre-epidemic (2011-2020) average annual real growth rate of 7.2% is still a big gap, the slowdown in income growth directly weakened the consumption power of residents. At the same time, the three-year epidemic has made consumers more cautious about their future expectations, further reducing their willingness to spend.

“Large consumer goods such as real estate and IC695ETM001-EK automobiles, which developed rapidly in the past, have entered an era of stock competition.” Guan Bing said that China is currently facing a continuous lack of effective demand, and the real estate market is still in the process of recovery, which has a certain impact on related industries such as metallurgy, building materials, construction machinery, home appliances and furniture.

Li Boyang suggested that, on the one hand, we should implement the policy of consumer goods industry, consolidate the traditional advantageous industries, and cultivate new driving forces, such as cultivating and expanding new growth points such as bio-manufacturing, elderly products, baby products, recreational products, and prepared foods. On the other hand, the implementation of the “three products” strategy, to create new products, famous products, boutique matrix, expand domestic demand and stabilize exports, with high-quality supply to promote consumption.

Looking forward to 2024, Li Boyang believes that under the background of the intensive introduction IC695ETM001-EK of real estate support policies in major departments and localities, real estate-related consumption is expected to recover at a low level in 2024. Overall, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 is expected to be slightly lower than that in 2023, increasing by about 7%.

Xiao Jinsong, director of the material industry Research Institute of CCID Research Institute, believes that in terms of raw material exports, the situation is not optimistic next year. “The global economic recovery process is slow and uneven, trade protectionism and geopolitical game continue to intensify, and the export of traditional raw materials such as steel and nonferrous metals faces more challenges.”

However, exports of equipment manufacturing remained strong. From January to November 2023, the “new three” exports of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic products grew rapidly, and the export of new energy vehicles reached 1.091 million.