Demand side: manufacturing investment stabilizes superposition update cycle, machine tool demand is expected to be released

(1) Policy to help the development of the industry, high-end machine tools is imperative

In recent years, China’s various support policies have tilted toward high-end equipment manufacturing, promoting the autonomy and control of all links in the industrial chain. The relevant state departments have printed and issued policies to support and standardize the development of the machine tool industry, which involve high-end CNC machine tools, machining centers, CNC systems, functional accessories, etc., to support the innovative development of the machine tool industry. Since the beginning of this year, the favorable policies to promote the development of industrial machinery have been frequent, not only supporting the development of industrial machinery industry at the macro level, but also further driving machine tool enterprises to increase research and development investment at the micro level, and realizing the overall development of China’s industrial machinery industry chain to high-end.

(2) The rise of downstream industries, driving the demand for machine tools

The downstream applications of machine tools involve all walks of life, and the automotive industry accounts for the largest proportion. According to the data of Huajing Industrial Research Institute, in the downstream of CNC machine tools in China, the automotive industry accounts for 40%, 330103-00-05-05-02-00 the aerospace field accounts for 17%, the mold industry accounts for 13%, the construction machinery industry accounts for 10%, and other industries account for 20%.

1. Automobile manufacturing

China is a big country in the world of automobile production and sales, and the total volume of automobile production and sales has ranked first in the world for 14 consecutive years. As of 2022, China’s automobile production and sales have completed 27.021 million and 26.864 million, an increase of 3.4% and 2.1% respectively. In the future, China’s automobile is expected to continue to develop rapidly and lead the global automobile industry under the multiple influences of favorable policies, economic development, technological upgrading and global procurement strategies. At present, the manufacturing of new energy vehicles is transforming to lightweight and integrated, and the special-shaped structural parts of integrated forming are expected to continue to provide opportunities for the application of five-axis machine tools in high-end CNC machine tools.

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2. Aerospace

The main market for high-end CNC machine tools is the military aircraft and civil aircraft market. According to the “COMAC Market Forecast Annual Report (2022-2041)”, with the steady rise of China’s economy, China’s civil aviation industry will enter a 330103-00-05-05-02-00 period of development quality improvement and pattern expansion, to 2041, China’s fleet size will reach 10,007, accounting for 21.1% of the global passenger aircraft fleet. China’s aviation market will become the world’s largest single aviation market. Aircraft manufacturing has an industry chain driving effect, is an important opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of domestic manufacturing industry. Aerospace as a high-end manufacturing field, the typical complex curved parts represented by the impeller blade disk must be processed by high-end five-axis linkage machine tools, so the rapid development of the aircraft industry has put forward a strong demand for high-end equipment instead of imports and create a larger market space, will become an important market growth point for domestic machine tool enterprises. At the same time, the industrial cluster effect will accelerate the migration of the global aviation manufacturing industry to China, and the future market space of more than 2.7 trillion yuan maintenance support, engineering services and other aviation post-market will also be open to domestic enterprises, which will bring new markets and opportunities.

3, construction machinery

As one of the important downstream industries of the CNC machine tool 330103-00-05-05-02-00 industry, the construction machinery industry needs more types of machine tool equipment, especially large processing equipment suitable for heavy cutting of metal materials. In 2021, the construction machinery industry achieved operating income of 906.5 billion yuan, an increase of 17%. In 2022, the domestic construction machinery industry is in a downward adjustment period, and the impact of factors such as the macroeconomic slowdown, the repeated COVID-19 epidemic, and the insufficient effective operating rate of projects has significantly reduced the demand for domestic construction machinery market, and the operating income of construction machinery in 2022 has dropped to 849 billion yuan. The domestic market of construction machinery is still in a state of grinding bottom, and it is expected that the decline in sales will narrow with the improvement of downstream marginal in 24 years.