Soochow Securities issued a research report said that 2023Q1 industrial robot sales 66,000 units, down 3% year on year, down 13% month on month, lower than market expectations. Looking forward to the whole year, robot is the automation product in the “growth” stage. Affected by the downstream business degree, the short-term pressure is expected to show a low before high trend in the whole year, and is expected to rebound in the second half of the year. In 2022, the localization rate of industrial robots in China is only 35%, the domestic leading Eston/Huichuan robot market share is only 6%/5%, and the total share of the “four big families” is 40%. Benefit from the take-off of domestic advantageous industries and the expansion of downstream application scenarios, such as the rise of domestic customers such as photovoltaic, lithium electricity, industrial robot localization ushered in opportunities.
The main views of Soochow Securities are as follows:
23Q1 Industrial robot industry sales -3% year-on-year, downstream PV maintained a high growth rate
2023Q1 Industrial robot sales 66,000 units, down 3% year-on-year, down 13% sequentially, lower than market expectations. In terms of downstream, photovoltaic and automotive electronics markets still maintain a growth rate of more than 20%. Photovoltaic market mainly benefits from the demand for equipment renewal generated by technology iteration. New energy vehicles, lithium electricity, medical and other industries have fallen in the short term, and the recovery of electronics and metal products industries is less than expected, dragging down the industry sales. By type, Cooperation and Delta achieved positive growth, mainly due to the recovery of food and beverage and daily chemical industries. The sales volume of SCARA, large six axis and small six axis were lower than expected, among which the decline of SCARA was mainly due to the slowdown of downstream lithium and medical demand, and the small volume of photovoltaic demand could not form a comprehensive support. The small six axis is affected by the weak consumption and investment in the electronics industry, and the market demand is weak. The six axes were basically flat compared with the same period last year, and the application of heavy load products accelerated to expand, and the demand of the hedge industry declined. Looking forward to the whole year, robot is the automation product in the “growth” stage. Affected by the downstream business degree, the short-term pressure is expected to show a low before high trend in the whole year, and is expected to rebound in the second half of the year.
Domestic substitution process speed up, domestic leading share increase
In 2022, the epidemic caused a serious shortage of the four major families, giving domestic robots a good window to enter emerging fields such as lithium electricity and polish their products. Under the uncertain market demand trend of 2023Q1, the industry price war and internal volume become an inevitable trend, domestic brands with the advantage of cost performance seize the opportunity again, accelerate the competition with foreign capital in lithium, photovoltaic, auto parts and other fields and seize market share, at the same time accelerate penetration in the vehicle field, the sales of foreign companies in the first quarter negative growth, but domestic enterprises increased by more than 20%, 2023Q1 industrial robot localization rate of 41%, a year-on-year increase of 9pct(2022 year-on-year increase of 4pct), domestic substitution speed up. In terms of competition pattern, in the first quarter, sales of more than half of the enterprises declined year-on-year, only a few domestic leading manufacturers were optimistic about orders in hand, the market pattern was reshaped, the industry was accelerated reshuffle, Eston, Huichuan Technology, Eft and other leading enterprises further increased their market share by virtue of years of technological accumulation and scale advantages, among which Eston’s market share increased by 2.7pct year-on-year. It ranked top 5 for the first time, equal to the four big families.
Industrial robots benefit from domestic substitution and robot +, domestic leaders are rising
In 2022, the scale of China’s industrial robot market reached 60.9 billion yuan, up 16% year on year, with a CAGR of 14% from 2017 to 2022. During the same period, Eston’s industrial robot sector (excluding the impact of Cloos acquisition) registered a revenue CAGR of 57%, and its share continued to rise to 5.9% in 2022. China’s industrial robots have the dual drive of increasing penetration rate and domestic substitution, and the industry has a broad prospect: (1) In terms of penetration rate, the density of robots in China’s manufacturing industry is 322 units per 10,000 people in 2021. According to the Implementation Plan of “Robot +” Application issued by 17 departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the target of the density of robots in China’s manufacturing industry in 2025 is to double that in 2020 (about 500 units per 10,000 people). The penetration rate of industrial robots continues to increase. (2) In terms of localization rate, in 2022, the localization rate of industrial robots in China is only 35%, the market share of Eston/Huichuan robot, the domestic leader, is only 6%/5%, and the total share of the “four big families” is 40%. Benefit from the take-off of domestic advantageous industries and the expansion of downstream application scenarios, such as the rise of domestic customers such as photovoltaic, lithium electricity, industrial robot localization ushered in opportunities.